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4yo Filly · 9-13 · OR 80

Ayr · Nairns's Oatcakes Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f

#1

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

99%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

On the go since the turn of the year and gained a superb sixth win of 2026 over C&D (soft) in June. Has reached the frame from this career-high mark all 3 starts since and this looks slightly easier.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength65%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 01/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 62 · 1m2f42y Std 122 · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 62 par1/055OR 625 @ Ripon 08/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 62 · 1m1f170y Gd 127 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 62 par5 @ Musselburgh 21/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 70 · 1m4f104y Gd 135 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 70 par21/055OR 705 @ Carlisle 08/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 70 · 1m1f Sft 130 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 70 par4 @ Chester 12/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 70 · 1m2f70y Sft 127 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 70 par12/064OR 704 @ Ayr 19/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 70 · 1m2f Sft 130 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 70 par4 @ Ayr 10/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 80 · 1m2f Goo 142 · beat its mark10/08/2026 · OR 80 par10/084OR 803 @ Haydock 03/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 80 · 1m2f42y Sft 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 80 par3 @ Chester 12/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 80 · 1m2f70y Sft 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 80 par12/093OR 80projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Chester34th3rd+1
2026-09-03Haydock33rd2nd+1
2026-08-10Ayr42nd2nd0
2026-06-19Ayr41st1st0
2026-06-12Chester41st1st0
2026-06-08Carlisle52nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/058/0610/0812/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength68%

Delivery trend -3.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/05/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
08/05/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
21/05/20263rd3/184%60%-0.24
08/06/20262nd10/382%90%+0.08
12/06/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
19/06/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
10/08/20262nd6/168%92%+0.23
03/09/20263rd5/174%67%-0.07
12/09/20264th7/163%67%+0.04