7
Tipsy Tiger
5yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 74
Ayr · Nairns's Oatcakes Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Sandown | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Kempton | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-20 | Pontefract | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-08 | Nottingham | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-12 | Sandown | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-29 | Sandown | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength59%
Delivery trend -1.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/2024 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 70% | -0.01 |
| 01/06/2025 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 25/06/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 29/08/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 12/09/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 91% | +0.30 |
| 08/10/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 85% | +0.19 |
| 20/10/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 73% | +0.02 |
| 29/06/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 11/09/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |