8
Yermanthere
8yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 73
Ayr · Nairns's Oatcakes Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f
#8
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength50%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Musselburgh | 5 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-09-01 | Ripon | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-24 | Musselburgh | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Ripon | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Pontefract | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Ripon | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength53%
Delivery trend -5.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/12/2025 | 7th | 200/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 27/05/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 08/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 18/06/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 29/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 24/08/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 01/09/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 12/09/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 22% | -0.15 |