6
Zowal
4yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 75
Ayr · Nairns's Oatcakes Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f
#9
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Pontefract | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Beverley | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Newcastle | 4 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Nottingham | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Pontefract | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Doncaster | 2 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength28%
Delivery trend -1.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 14% | -0.49 |
| 11/07/2025 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 08/11/2025 | 17th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 28/03/2026 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 76% | +0.76 |
| 07/04/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 20/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 25/07/2026 | 13th | 50/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 29/08/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 57% | +0.15 |
| 17/09/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 11% | -0.26 |