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Abduction

8yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 74

Ayr · Autumn Breaks At Western House Hotel Handicap · 7f 50y

#1

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

78%

Place Prob

49%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual winner at 7f this season, most recently at Musselburgh in April. Largely run well since, making the frame once more when third of 8 in handicap at Hamilton (6f, soft, 10/1) 8 days ago. Likely to be in the mix again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Musselburgh 26/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 76 · 7f15y Goo 126 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 76 par26/044OR 764 @ Hamilton 17/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 76 · 6f6y Gd 131 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 76 par4 @ Musselburgh 06/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 75 · 7f15y Gd 130 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 75 par6/064OR 754 @ Ayr 20/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 74 · 6f Sft 136 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 74 par4 @ Musselburgh 30/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 74 · 7f15y Gd 129 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 74 par30/064OR 745 @ Ayr 06/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 74 · 7f50y Gd 142 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 74 par4 @ Ayr 27/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 74 · 7f50y Goo 140 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 74 par27/074OR 744 @ Hamilton 21/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 74 · 6f6y GS 134 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 74 par4 @ Hamilton 21/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 74 · 6f6y Sft 134 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 74 par21/094OR 74projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Hamilton43rd3rd0
2026-08-21Hamilton44th4th0
2026-07-27Ayr42nd2nd0
2026-07-06Ayr53rd4th−1
2026-06-30Musselburgh43rd3rd0
2026-06-20Ayr43rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0420/0627/0721/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength94%

Delivery trend +2.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/04/20268th11/271%30%-0.41
17/05/20267th28/10%50%+0.50
06/06/20267th17/255%25%-0.30
20/06/20263rd9/153%85%+0.32
30/06/20263rd11/142%71%+0.29
06/07/20263rd4/179%80%+0.01
27/07/20262nd9/276%75%-0.01
21/08/20264th8/158%70%+0.12
21/09/20263rd10/147%71%+0.24