10
Circle Of Trust
3yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 68
Ayr · Autumn Breaks At Western House Hotel Handicap · 7f 50y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Ayr | 5 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Ayr | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Thirsk | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Hamilton | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Leicester | 5 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2025-09-16 | Yarmouth | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength59%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 12/08/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 27/08/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 16/09/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 25/04/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 18% | -0.19 |
| 17/05/2026 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 05/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 20/06/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 08/08/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 18% | -0.19 |