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2

Count Palatine

5yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 81

Ayr · Autumn Breaks At Western House Hotel Handicap · 7f 50y

#4

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#4

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Produced a career best when scoring at Carlisle (7f, good to soft) last month but not been in quite same form since. Others preferred.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Leicester 14/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 82 · 7f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/10/2025 · OR 82 par14/103OR 824 @ Thirsk 18/04/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 82 · 7f Goo 132 · below its mark18/04/2026 · OR 82 par3 @ Thirsk 16/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 81 · 7f218y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 81 par16/053OR 814 @ Carlisle 30/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 80 · 7f173y Goo 135 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 14th of 20 · OR 80 · 7f Gd 135 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 80 par12/064OR 804 @ Ayr 08/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 79 · 1m Goo 129 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Carlisle 19/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 78 · 6f195y Goo 133 · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 78 par19/084OR 784 @ Beverley 30/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 81 · 1m100y Hvy 131 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 81 par4 @ Beverley 22/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 81 · 7f75y Gd 141 · beat its mark22/09/2026 · OR 81 par22/094OR 81projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-22Beverley47th7th0
2026-08-30Beverley46th6th0
2026-08-19Carlisle41st1st0
2026-08-08Ayr46th6th0
2026-06-12York414th14th0
2026-05-30Carlisle43rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/1030/0519/0822/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength69%

Delivery trend -5.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/10/20252nd28/10%93%+0.93
18/04/202613th25/10%0%0.00
16/05/202610th40/10%25%+0.25
30/05/20263rd16/116%78%+0.62
12/06/202614th40/10%32%+0.32
08/08/20266th25/10%44%+0.44
19/08/20261st17/255%100%+0.45
30/08/20266th20/10%50%+0.50
22/09/20267th8/158%33%-0.25