4
Homestrait
3yo Filly · 9-10 · OR 79
Ayr · Autumn Breaks At Western House Hotel Handicap · 7f 50y
#2
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Chester | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-11 | Chester | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-09-04 | Haydock | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-12 | Beverley | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Redcar | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Carlisle | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength91%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 05/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 89% | +0.23 |
| 22/06/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 29/07/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 12/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 44% | +0.18 |
| 04/09/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 11/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 92% | +0.29 |
| 19/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |