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Misunderstood

4yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 81

Ayr · Autumn Breaks At Western House Hotel Handicap · 7f 50y

#6

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

His smart 2-y-o form seems a thing of the past but he figures off a handy mark and has been performing with credit of late, a bit too keen when fifth at Beverley over this trip last week. Shortlisted.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength47%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Musselburgh 21/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 88 · 7f15y Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/05/2026 · OR 88 par21/053OR 884 @ Doncaster 05/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 85 · 6f2y GF 135 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 85 par4 @ Ayr 06/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 17 · OR 83 · 6f Gd 140 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 83 par6/074OR 834 @ York 24/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 18 · OR 81 · 7f Goo 136 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 81 par4 @ Musselburgh 07/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 80 · 7f15y Gd 137 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 80 par7/084OR 804 @ Carlisle 19/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 79 · 6f195y Goo 134 · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Beverley 29/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 78 · 7f75y Sft 138 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 78 par29/084OR 784 @ Thirsk 05/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 80 · 7f Goo 135 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Beverley 22/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 81 · 7f75y Gd 141 · beat its mark22/09/2026 · OR 81 par22/094OR 81projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-22Beverley45th5th0
2026-09-05Thirsk42nd2nd0
2026-08-29Beverley42nd2nd0
2026-08-19Carlisle45th5th0
2026-08-07Musselburgh44th4th0
2026-07-24York47th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0524/0729/0822/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength48%

Delivery trend -8.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/05/20267th18/15%14%+0.09
05/06/20266th28/10%58%+0.58
06/07/20267th25/10%63%+0.63
24/07/20267th12/137%65%+0.28
07/08/20264th4/179%70%-0.09
19/08/20265th11/271%56%-0.15
29/08/20262nd4/179%86%+0.07
05/09/20262nd9/488%88%-0.01
22/09/20265th15/890%56%-0.35