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9

One Night Thunder

6yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 70

Ayr · Autumn Breaks At Western House Hotel Handicap · 7f 50y

#7

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual Carlisle winner last season who stepped up on recent efforts when creditable third of 10 in handicap at same course (7f, good to soft, 7/2) 20 days ago. 1 lb lower now and is not taken lightly.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Beverley 23/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 80 · 7f96y Sft 139 · beat its mark23/09/2025 · OR 80 par23/094OR 803 @ Southwell 30/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 83 · 7f15y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/10/2025 · OR 83 par4 @ Thirsk 18/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 82 · 7f Goo 132 · below its mark18/04/2026 · OR 82 par18/044OR 824 @ Haydock 09/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 80 · 6f212y Gd 130 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Nottingham 11/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 80 · 1m75y Sft 133 · below its mark11/06/2026 · OR 80 par11/064OR 804 @ Newcastle 25/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 78 · 1m5y Sta 135 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Musselburgh 07/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 75 · 7f15y Gd 132 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 75 par7/084OR 754 @ Beverley 29/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 73 · 7f75y Sft 133 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 73 par5 @ Carlisle 09/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 71 · 6f195y Goo 136 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 71 par9/095OR 71projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Carlisle53rd4th−1
2026-08-29Beverley45th5th0
2026-08-07Musselburgh46th6th0
2026-07-25Newcastle47th7th0
2026-06-11Nottingham48th8th0
2026-05-09Haydock43rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/099/057/089/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength64%

Delivery trend +0.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/09/20252nd2/189%92%+0.02
30/10/20259th12/137%20%-0.17
18/04/202610th14/126%25%-0.01
09/05/20263rd11/142%78%+0.36
11/06/20268th4/179%13%-0.66
25/07/20267th22/10%45%+0.45
07/08/20266th20/10%50%+0.50
29/08/20265th11/486%43%-0.43
09/09/20263rd7/282%78%-0.04