7
Stanage
5yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 71
Ayr · Autumn Breaks At Western House Hotel Handicap · 7f 50y
#9
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Doncaster | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Newcastle | 4 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Doncaster | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Doncaster | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-17 | Newcastle | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-09-28 | Newcastle | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 8-10 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 55% | +0.39 |
| 30/07/2025 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 58% | +0.42 |
| 12/09/2025 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 28/09/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 58% | +0.00 |
| 17/10/2025 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 40% | -0.50 |
| 25/10/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 29/03/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 26/06/2026 | 12th | 14/1 | 26% | 15% | -0.11 |
| 09/07/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |