6
Tip Foster
3yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 75
Ayr · Autumn Breaks At Western House Hotel Handicap · 7f 50y
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Haydock | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Thirsk | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-07 | Pontefract | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength39%
Delivery trend -19.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/04/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 75% | +0.70 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 04/09/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |