8
Kelpie Grey
6yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 54
Ayr · Book Your Event At Ayr Racecourse Handicap · 7f 50y
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Ayr | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-09-17 | Ayr | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Hamilton | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ayr | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ayr | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Ayr | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength49%
Delivery trend +3.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/2026 | 8th | 9/4 | 88% | 13% | -0.76 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 62% | +0.09 |
| 06/07/2026 | 13th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 27/07/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 38% | -0.45 |
| 08/08/2026 | 8th | 10/3 | 82% | 42% | -0.41 |
| 10/08/2026 | 11th | 3/1 | 84% | 9% | -0.75 |
| 02/09/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 17/09/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 54% | -0.07 |
| 18/09/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |