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7

Lope Y Linda

3yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 58

Ayr · Book Your Event At Ayr Racecourse Handicap · 7f 50y

#1

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

93%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Free-going type who looked better than ever when making all at Catterick 3 weeks ago, her rider doing well to get across from the widest stall. 5 lb rise seems a little excessive but she has a good record here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength30%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Beverley 16/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 50 · 7f96y Goo 124 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 50 par16/066OR 506 @ Ayr 20/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 50 · 7f50y Sft 126 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Ayr 05/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 54 · 7f50y Gd 129 · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 54 par5/076OR 546 @ Leicester 14/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 54 · 7f GF 134 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Leicester 22/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 55 · 1m53y Goo 135 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 55 par22/076OR 556 @ Thirsk 07/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 54 · 6f Goo 124 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Redcar 22/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 54 · 5f217y Goo 131 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 54 par22/086OR 546 @ Southwell 31/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 53 · 6f16y Std 128 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 53 par6 @ Catterick 08/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 53 · 7f6y Goo 128 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 53 par8/096OR 53projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Catterick61st1st0
2026-08-31Southwell62nd2nd0
2026-08-22Redcar612th12th0
2026-08-07Thirsk63rd3rd0
2026-07-22Leicester64th4th0
2026-07-14Leicester64th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0614/0722/088/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.4% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/06/202610th9/276%31%-0.46
20/06/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
05/07/20262nd17/255%90%+0.35
14/07/20264th2/189%40%-0.49
22/07/20264th4/179%40%-0.39
07/08/20263rd6/168%78%+0.09
22/08/202612th17/255%27%-0.29
31/08/20262nd12/137%91%+0.54
08/09/20261st6/168%100%+0.32