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3

Milford Grange

3yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 65

Ayr · Book Your Event At Ayr Racecourse Handicap · 7f 50y

#5

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Maiden who was runner-up 3 times in a row earlier in the season, but not quite at those levels since. Blinkers now go on.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength75%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Redcar 17/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 5f217y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS17/1054 @ Pontefract 07/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 6f GS 133 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Ripon 16/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 6f GS 133 · HIGHER CLASS16/0455 @ Doncaster 16/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 69 · 6f2y GS 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Ayr 20/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 69 · 7f50y Sft 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 69 par20/065OR 694 @ York 10/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 70 · 7f192y Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 70 par4 @ York 25/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 69 · 7f Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 69 par25/074OR 695 @ Ayr 08/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 67 · 7f50y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Ripon 01/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 66 · 1m Sft 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 66 par1/095OR 66projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-01Ripon53rd2nd+1
2026-08-08Ayr54th3rd+1
2026-07-25York48th6th+2
2026-07-10York46th4th+2
2026-06-20Ayr52nd1st+1
2026-05-16Doncaster52nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/1016/0525/071/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength93%

Delivery trend +3.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/10/20253rd15/261%71%+0.11
07/04/20267th7/282%25%-0.57
16/04/20262nd12/137%83%+0.46
16/05/20262nd7/282%86%+0.04
20/06/20262nd7/491%86%-0.05
10/07/20266th16/116%50%+0.34
25/07/20268th25/10%36%+0.36
08/08/20264th9/153%73%+0.20
01/09/20263rd9/276%83%+0.07