Novak
7yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 65
Ayr · Book Your Event At Ayr Racecourse Handicap · 7f 50y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Thirsk | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-08-25 | Musselburgh | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ayr | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Ayr | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Ayr | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Hamilton | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.2% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/04/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 46% | +0.30 |
| 05/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 88% | +0.45 |
| 10/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 19/06/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 57% | -0.25 |
| 27/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 63% | -0.14 |
| 10/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 91% | +0.28 |
| 25/08/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 14/09/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 45% | -0.12 |