Runninman
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 45
Ayr · Book Your Event At Ayr Racecourse Handicap · 7f 50y
#11
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 6.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Newcastle | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | Carlisle | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Catterick | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Carlisle | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Newcastle | 6 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Newcastle | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +8.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/02/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 55% | -0.27 |
| 27/02/2026 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 30% | -0.49 |
| 11/03/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 19/03/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 31/07/2026 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 19/08/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 26/08/2026 | 5th | 66/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 09/09/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/09/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |