Showtown
3yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 65
Ayr · Book Your Event At Ayr Racecourse Handicap · 7f 50y
#7
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Thirsk | 5 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-09-05 | Newcastle | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-08-11 | Carlisle | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thirsk | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Thirsk | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Haydock | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +9.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 07/04/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 88% | -0.02 |
| 04/05/2026 | 10th | 4/1 | 79% | 31% | -0.48 |
| 21/05/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 70% | +0.02 |
| 05/06/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 01/07/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 30% | -0.31 |
| 11/08/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/09/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 46% | -0.01 |
| 14/09/2026 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |