Tap Dancer
4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 50
Ayr · Book Your Event At Ayr Racecourse Handicap · 7f 50y
#8
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Ayr | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ayr | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Ayr | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Ayr | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Ayr | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10/2025 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 05/05/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 40% | -0.02 |
| 20/05/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 19/06/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 38% | -0.39 |
| 06/07/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 45% | -0.02 |
| 13/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |
| 27/07/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 08/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 55% | +0.28 |
| 18/09/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |