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9

Toy Soldier

4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 50

Ayr · Book Your Event At Ayr Racecourse Handicap · 7f 50y

#10

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ex-Irish 4-y-o who has yet to win a handicap and hasn't cut much ice for current yard.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength50%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 7.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.9
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA57 @ Curragh 15/03/2026 · Pos 13th of 26 · OR 57 · 1m Hvy 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/03/2026 · OR 57 par15/0357OR 57BHA53 @ Killarney 12/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 53 · 1m31y Gd 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 53 parBHA52 @ Down Royal 19/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 52 · 7f Sft 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 52 par19/0652OR 52BHA54 @ Roscommon 30/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 54 · 7f94y Goo 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Ayr 05/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 54 · 7f50y Gd 137 · beat its mark05/07/2026 · OR 54 par5/076OR 546 @ Ayr 20/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 57 · 1m2f GF 137 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Musselburgh 07/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 55 · 1m208y Gd 132 · below its mark07/08/2026 · OR 55 par7/086OR 556 @ Hamilton 02/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 52 · 1m68y Sft 130 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Hamilton 21/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 50 · 1m68y Sft 130 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 50 par21/096OR 50projClass-projected finish: 10th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Hamilton65th5th0
2026-09-02Hamilton65th5th0
2026-08-07Musselburgh67th7th0
2026-07-20Ayr68th8th0
2026-07-05Ayr66th6th0
2026-06-30RoscommonBHA542nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0330/067/0821/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 6-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -6.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/03/202613th80/10%52%+0.52
12/05/20264th4/179%79%-0.00
19/06/20262nd5/174%90%+0.16
30/06/20262nd3/184%93%+0.09
05/07/20266th5/493%50%-0.43
20/07/20268th5/174%22%-0.51
07/08/20267th17/255%0%-0.55
02/09/20265th16/116%56%+0.40
21/09/20265th9/153%33%-0.19