8
Ashen
4yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 67
Ayr · Book Racing On Saturday 31 October Handicap · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Hamilton | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-21 | Hamilton | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Musselburgh | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | York | 4 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Hamilton | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength68%
Delivery trend -2.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 05/05/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 70% | -0.19 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 24/07/2026 | 12th | 11/1 | 42% | 35% | -0.07 |
| 07/08/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 90% | +0.32 |
| 21/08/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 21/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |