1
Belsito
6yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 77
Ayr · Book Racing On Saturday 31 October Handicap · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Hamilton | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Hamilton | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Southwell | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Hamilton | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-29 | Southwell | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-10 | Thirsk | 5 | 11th | 12th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +3.1% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 21/09/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 06/10/2025 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 42% | +0.36 |
| 10/04/2026 | 11th | 17/2 | 55% | 29% | -0.27 |
| 29/04/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 82% | +0.45 |
| 21/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 90% | +0.43 |
| 21/09/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |