3
Big Harry
3yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 78
Ayr · Book Racing On Saturday 31 October Handicap · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | Kempton | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Doncaster | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-28 | Leicester | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-06-01 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 8-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -45.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06/2025 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 28/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 88% | +0.35 |
| 08/11/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 10/06/2026 | 6th | 13/8 | 91% | 29% | -0.63 |