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5

Lord Bertie

6yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 75

Ayr · Book Racing On Saturday 31 October Handicap · 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has his own way of doing things but suited by testing conditions and returned to form when creditable second of 14 in handicap at Haydock (6f, heavy, 5/1) 25 days ago. Claims if in the same mood and was runner-up in this last year.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Doncaster 24/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 83 · 6f2y Sft 136 · beat its mark24/10/2025 · OR 83 par24/104OR 832 @ Doncaster 08/11/2025 · Pos 15th of 22 · OR 88 · 6f2y Hvy 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/11/2025 · OR 88 par3 @ Doncaster 29/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 19 · OR 87 · 6f2y GS 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/03/2026 · OR 87 par29/033OR 874 @ Doncaster 16/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 86 · 6f2y GS 136 · below its mark16/05/2026 · OR 86 par4 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 20 · OR 84 · 7f Gd 139 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 84 par12/064OR 844 @ Ayr 06/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 17 · OR 82 · 6f Gd 139 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ York 24/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 18 · OR 80 · 7f Goo 135 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 80 par24/074OR 804 @ Hamilton 21/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 78 · 6f6y GS 138 · below its mark21/08/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Haydock 04/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 76 · 6f Hvy 129 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 76 par4/094OR 76projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Haydock42nd2nd0
2026-08-21Hamilton410th10th0
2026-07-24York49th9th0
2026-07-06Ayr46th6th0
2026-06-12York411th11th0
2026-05-16Doncaster412th12th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/1016/0524/074/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength78%

Delivery trend -3.5% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/10/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
08/11/202515th14/126%33%+0.07
29/03/20266th28/10%72%+0.72
16/05/202612th15/261%0%-0.61
12/06/202611th66/10%47%+0.47
06/07/20266th15/261%69%+0.08
24/07/20269th20/10%53%+0.53
21/08/202610th13/266%0%-0.66
04/09/20262nd5/174%92%+0.19