Parisiac
7yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 75
Ayr · Book Racing On Saturday 31 October Handicap · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
94%
Place Prob
68%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Hamilton | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-09-06 | York | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Hamilton | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Ayr | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Carlisle | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 31/10/2025 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 30% | -0.36 |
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 09/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 90% | +0.43 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 92% | +0.24 |
| 06/07/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 44% | -0.09 |
| 21/08/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 30% | -0.23 |
| 06/09/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 28/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 75% | +0.33 |