4
Roberto Caro
5yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 76
Ayr · Book Racing On Saturday 31 October Handicap · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Hamilton | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Ripon | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | York | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Ayr | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Beverley | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Southwell | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength40%
Delivery trend -5.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 27/03/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 85% | +0.79 |
| 16/04/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 30/04/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 60% | -0.29 |
| 30/05/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 20/06/2026 | 11th | 6/1 | 68% | 23% | -0.45 |
| 25/07/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 15/08/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 68% | +0.26 |
| 21/09/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 57% | +0.15 |