IvyArcIvyArc
7

Stirrup Cup

4yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 73

Ayr · Book Racing On Saturday 31 October Handicap · 6f

#7

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Took advantage of a drop back in grade when winning apprentice handicap at Carlisle in June. Below that level since, however, and has something to prove at present. Blinkers back on.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 22/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 71 · 6f Std 131 · beat its mark22/11/2025 · OR 71 par22/115OR 714 @ Newcastle 29/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 70 · 6f Std 127 · beat its mark29/12/2025 · OR 70 par5 @ Thirsk 10/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 69 · 6f Gd 134 · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 69 par10/045OR 695 @ Thirsk 18/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 18 · OR 70 · 6f Goo 130 · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 70 par4 @ Hamilton 17/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 70 · 6f6y Gd 125 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 70 par17/054OR 705 @ Carlisle 08/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 70 · 5f182y Sft 138 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Hamilton 17/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 70 · 6f6y Goo 135 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 70 par17/065OR 704 @ Hamilton 21/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 73 · 6f6y GS 133 · below its mark21/08/2026 · OR 73 par4 @ Hamilton 21/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 73 · 6f6y Sft 133 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 73 par21/094OR 73projClass-projected finish: 8th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Hamilton46th6th0
2026-08-21Hamilton411th11th0
2026-06-17Hamilton55th6th−1
2026-06-08Carlisle51st2nd−1
2026-05-17Hamilton49th9th0
2026-04-18Thirsk53rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/1118/0417/0621/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 6-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -5.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/11/20253rd11/142%80%+0.38
29/12/20258th9/153%22%-0.30
10/04/20262nd22/10%93%+0.93
18/04/20263rd7/282%88%+0.07
17/05/20269th13/266%33%-0.32
08/06/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
17/06/20265th5/287%43%-0.44
21/08/202611th12/137%0%-0.37
21/09/20266th22/10%29%+0.29