Woven
10yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 81
Ayr · Book Racing On Saturday 31 October Handicap · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 6.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Ayr | 2 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-09-04 | Haydock | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | York | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | York | 2 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-03-29 | Doncaster | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 24/10/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 76% | +0.24 |
| 08/11/2025 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 48% | +0.48 |
| 29/03/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 13/05/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 95% | +0.58 |
| 06/07/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 04/09/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 69% | +0.06 |
| 18/09/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 65% | +0.13 |