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5

Aighear

8yo Mare · 9-3 · OR 51

Ayr · Racing TV Handicap · 1m 7f

#2

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

67%

Place Prob

58%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won this contest (off 6 lb lower) last year and followed up in convincing fashion here 10 days later. Yet to score this season but arrives on back of creditable fourth of 12 in handicap over shorter trip at Hamilton earlier this month and looks fairly treated. Player.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength63%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Ayr 30/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 45 · 1m7f Sft 123 · beat its mark30/09/2025 · OR 45 par30/096OR 456 @ Ayr 09/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 45 · 1m5f26y Hvy 127 · beat its mark09/10/2025 · OR 45 par5 @ Newbury 24/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 53 · 2m Sft 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/10/2025 · OR 53 par24/105OR 536 @ Musselburgh 05/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 54 · 1m7f217y Sft 134 · beat its mark05/11/2025 · OR 54 par5 @ Ayr 05/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 54 · 1m7f Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/05/2026 · OR 54 par5/055OR 546 @ Ayr 19/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 53 · 1m7f Sft 130 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 53 par5 @ Ayr 06/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 52 · 1m5f26y Gd 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 52 par6/075OR 526 @ Hamilton 16/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 52 · 1m5f16y Goo 122 · below its mark16/07/2026 · OR 52 par5 @ Hamilton 02/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 50 · 1m5f16y Sft 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 50 par2/095OR 50projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Hamilton54th3rd+1
2026-07-16Hamilton65th5th0
2026-07-06Ayr56th5th+1
2026-06-19Ayr64th4th0
2026-05-05Ayr53rd2nd+1
2025-11-05Musselburgh63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/095/116/072/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength46%

Delivery trend -7.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/09/20251st14/126%100%+0.74
09/10/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
24/10/20252nd4/179%90%+0.11
05/11/20253rd11/486%75%-0.11
05/05/20263rd11/142%33%-0.09
19/06/20264th15/261%57%-0.03
06/07/20266th8/158%29%-0.29
16/07/20265th17/255%0%-0.55
02/09/20264th11/142%73%+0.31