Celestial Cen

3yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 65

Ayr · Racing TV Handicap · 1m 7f

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼2

Strength80%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 4

Recent avg: C4.3

Today: 6

Class gap: +1.8

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-10	Kempton	5	9th	8th	+1	2.2
2026-07-17	Nottingham	4	4th	2nd	+2	8.4
2026-06-30	Ffos Las	4	4th	2nd	+2	8.4
2026-06-06	Lingfield	4	2nd	0th	+2	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 7-7 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -42.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
06/06/2026	2nd	40/1	0%	86%	+0.86
30/06/2026	4th	16/1	16%	50%	+0.34
17/07/2026	4th	9/2	76%	25%	-0.51
10/08/2026	9th	12/1	37%	11%	-0.26