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4

Ebony Maw

9yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 53

Ayr · Racing TV Handicap · 1m 7f

#1

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

33%

Place Prob

41%

Rank

#1

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Four-time course winner, latest over shorter trip in July. Made the frame on next 2 starts but needs to bounce back from a poor run here 11 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength73%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Catterick 28/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 58 · 1m7f189y Sft 138 · beat its mark28/10/2025 · OR 58 par28/106OR 586 @ Musselburgh 05/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 58 · 1m7f217y Sft 138 · below its mark05/11/2025 · OR 58 par6 @ Catterick 08/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 57 · 1m4f13y Goo 127 · beat its mark08/04/2026 · OR 57 par8/046OR 575 @ Haydock 21/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 56 · 2m45y Sft 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Ayr 19/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 53 · 1m7f Sft 130 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 53 par19/066OR 535 @ Ayr 06/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 52 · 1m5f26y Gd 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Hamilton 11/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 54 · 1m4f15y Goo 138 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 54 par11/086OR 545 @ Hamilton 02/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 54 · 1m5f16y Sft 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 54 par5 @ Ayr 18/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 54 · 1m5f26y Sft 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 54 par18/095OR 54projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Ayr56th5th+1
2026-09-02Hamilton53rd2nd+1
2026-08-11Hamilton63rd3rd0
2026-07-06Ayr51st0th+1
2026-06-19Ayr63rd3rd0
2026-05-21Haydock54th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/1021/0511/0818/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength96%

Delivery trend +3.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/10/20253rd17/255%78%+0.23
05/11/20259th15/261%0%-0.61
08/04/20267th14/126%33%+0.07
21/05/20264th11/142%40%-0.02
19/06/20263rd12/137%71%+0.35
06/07/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
11/08/20263rd8/158%71%+0.14
02/09/20263rd9/153%82%+0.29
18/09/20266th10/147%44%-0.03