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2

Furhaan

4yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 61

Ayr · Racing TV Handicap · 1m 7f

#5

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Drawn a blank since handicap debut success for Ed Walker last autumn but made the frame on several occasions this season, latest when creditable third of 10 in handicap over shorter trip at this course 11 days ago. Likely to be in the mix again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength89%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.8
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Thirsk 18/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 70 · 1m4f8y Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 70 par18/044OR 704 @ Musselburgh 26/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 69 · 1m4f104y Goo 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/04/2026 · OR 69 par4 @ Hamilton 17/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 67 · 1m3f15y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 67 par17/054OR 674 @ Chester 27/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 65 · 1m7f196y Goo 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 65 par4 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 63 · 2m56y Goo 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 63 par11/074OR 634 @ York 24/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 63 · 2m56y Goo 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 63 par4 @ Musselburgh 25/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 63 · 2m2f28y Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/08/2026 · OR 63 par25/084OR 634 @ York 06/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 62 · 2m56y GS 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 62 par5 @ Ayr 18/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 62 · 1m5f26y Sft 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 62 par18/095OR 62projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Ayr53rd2nd+1
2026-09-06York49th7th+2
2026-08-25Musselburgh44th2nd+2
2026-07-24York43rd1st+2
2026-07-11York42nd0th+2
2026-06-27Chester45th3rd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0427/0625/0818/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +0.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/04/202611th25/10%9%+0.09
26/04/20269th28/10%0%0.00
17/05/20267th33/10%33%+0.33
27/06/20265th12/137%33%-0.04
11/07/20262nd20/10%88%+0.88
24/07/20263rd14/126%83%+0.57
25/08/20264th15/261%63%+0.02
06/09/20269th9/153%27%-0.25
18/09/20263rd12/137%78%+0.41