7
Speechman
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 45
Ayr · Racing TV Handicap · 1m 7f
#7
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength44%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Carlisle | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Catterick | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Newcastle | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Catterick | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Beverley | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Ripon | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength37%
Delivery trend +6.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/12/2025 | 11th | 11/2 | 71% | 9% | -0.62 |
| 17/05/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 02/06/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 30% | -0.23 |
| 18/06/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 03/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 08/07/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 31/07/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 04/08/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 27/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |