2
Arcadian Nights
8yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 72
Bath · JDL Consultants Ltd Apprentice Handicap · 1m 2f 37y
#10
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength67%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 6 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Haydock | 4 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Sandown | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-02-10 | Lingfield | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-12-26 | Wolverhampton | 3 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-12-13 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength21%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 12th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 69% | +0.03 |
| 08/05/2025 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 28/09/2025 | 10th | 125/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/12/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 70% | +0.54 |
| 26/12/2025 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 33% | +0.28 |
| 10/02/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 73% | +0.04 |
| 07/03/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 06/08/2026 | 5th | 125/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 03/09/2026 | 9th | 100/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |