Decalogue
3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 73
Bath · JDL Consultants Ltd Apprentice Handicap · 1m 2f 37y
#2
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Kempton | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Salisbury | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Newmarket | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Sandown | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Kempton | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-11-21 | Meydan | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/2025 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/11/2025 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 27/05/2026 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 06/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 03/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 14/09/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |