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12

Pangbourne

3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 56

Bath · JDL Consultants Ltd Apprentice Handicap · 1m 2f 37y

#9

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed promise on all-weather earlier this year and hasn't fared at all badly switched to turf subsequently, another good third at Sandown latest.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wolverhampton 30/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 1m142y Std 114 · HIGHER CLASS30/0144 @ Lingfield 21/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR - · 1m1y Std 118 · HIGHER CLASS6 @ Wolverhampton 09/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 55 · 1m142y Std 135 · beat its mark09/03/2026 · OR 55 par9/036OR 556 @ Wolverhampton 30/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 57 · 1m1f104y Std 127 · beat its mark30/03/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Lingfield 14/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 57 · 1m2f Std 127 · beat its mark14/04/2026 · OR 57 par14/046OR 575 @ Windsor 11/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 57 · 1m3f99y Goo 114 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Epsom Downs 14/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 57 · 1m2f17y Goo 129 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 57 par14/086OR 576 @ Ffos Las 28/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 56 · 1m2f GS 131 · beat its mark28/08/2026 · OR 56 par5 @ Sandown 16/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 56 · 1m1f209y Goo 123 · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 56 par16/095OR 56projClass-projected finish: 5th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Sandown53rd3rd0
2026-08-28Ffos Las63rd4th−1
2026-08-14Epsom Downs65th6th−1
2026-05-11Windsor55th5th0
2026-04-14Lingfield65th6th−1
2026-03-30Wolverhampton62nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0130/0314/0816/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength95%

Delivery trend -2.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/01/20265th80/10%33%+0.33
21/02/20269th200/10%0%0.00
09/03/20262nd33/10%90%+0.90
30/03/20262nd14/126%83%+0.57
14/04/20265th12/137%33%-0.04
11/05/20265th28/10%56%+0.56
14/08/20265th9/153%56%+0.03
28/08/20263rd17/255%80%+0.25
16/09/20263rd8/158%80%+0.22