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5

Rascallion

7yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 70

Bath · JDL Consultants Ltd Apprentice Handicap · 1m 2f 37y

#5

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Three-time winner in France. Made a bright start over hurdles for this yard last spring but best watched after 16 months off.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength87%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Lyon La Soie 18/12/2023 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR - · 1m3f204y Std 13218/12C?C0 @ Cagnes-sur-Mer 12/02/2024 · Pos 16th of 16 · OR - · 1m1f207y Std 1224 @ Newbury 20/04/2024 · Pos 12th of 18 · OR 79 · 1m2f GS 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/04/2024 · OR 79 par20/044OR 794 @ Chelmsford City 20/06/2024 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 76 · 1m Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2024 · OR 76 par4 @ Chelmsford City 07/07/2024 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 75 · 1m Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/07/2024 · OR 75 par7/074OR 754 @ Ludlow 25/11/2024 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m7f169y Goo 158 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Wincanton 31/03/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 1m7f50y Goo 159 · HIGHER CLASS31/0344 @ Taunton 09/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 114 · 2m104y Goo 164 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/04/2025 · OR 114 par4 @ Hereford 09/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 114 · 2m53y Gd 164 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/05/2025 · OR 114 par9/054OR 114projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-05-09Hereford42nd1st+1
2025-04-09Taunton42nd1st+1
2025-03-31Wincanton41st0th+1
2024-12-26Kempton2+3
2024-11-25Ludlow42nd1st+1
2024-07-07Chelmsford City410th9th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/1220/0631/039/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 7-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -2.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/12/20237th5/174%57%-0.17
12/02/202416th33/10%0%0.00
20/04/202412th100/10%35%+0.35
20/06/20244th50/10%73%+0.73
07/07/202410th11/142%0%-0.42
25/11/20242nd11/142%86%+0.44
31/03/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
09/04/20252nd10/1195%83%-0.12
09/05/20252nd2/189%67%-0.23