Shady Bay
5yo Mare · 10-1 · OR 74
Bath · JDL Consultants Ltd Apprentice Handicap · 1m 2f 37y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Goodwood | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Windsor | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Windsor | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-23 | Newbury | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Nottingham | 3 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-04-26 | Nottingham | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 45% | -0.18 |
| 18/10/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 03/11/2025 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 26/04/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 31/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 13/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 10/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 28/08/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 45% | -0.26 |