13
Beggarman
9yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 58
Bath · MJ Church Handicap · 1m 5f 11y
#10
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#10
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength39%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Lingfield | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-30 | Nottingham | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Yarmouth | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-07 | Southwell | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Newbury | 5 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-10-12 | Goodwood | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 2-14 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength48%
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 11/09/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 28/09/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 12/10/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 25/10/2025 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 10/06/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 15/08/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 63% | +0.07 |