Calshot Spit
6yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 60
Bath · MJ Church Handicap · 1m 5f 11y
#8
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Fontwell | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Fontwell | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-11 | Fontwell | 4 | +1 | ||
| 2025-12-08 | Fontwell | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-03-28 | Fontwell | 5 | 0 | ||
| 2024-12-15 | Windsor | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/2024 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 24/09/2024 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 10/10/2024 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 22% | -0.51 |
| 04/11/2024 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 20% | -0.64 |
| 17/11/2024 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 60% | +0.18 |
| 15/12/2024 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 08/12/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 14/03/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 24/04/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 82% | +0.24 |