Cosmo Brown
3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 69
Bath · MJ Church Handicap · 1m 5f 11y
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Kempton | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Chepstow | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Newbury | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Leicester | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Goodwood | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-04-16 | Newmarket | 2 | 8th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/04/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 02/05/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 11/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 06/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 26/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 90% | +0.24 |