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3

Hebridean Nomad

5yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 67

Bath · MJ Church Handicap · 1m 5f 11y

#1

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

60%

Place Prob

32%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Finally opened his account in handicaps at Lingfield in January off a career-low mark. Not far off his very best when a close fourth there under this rider 17 days ago and can make presence felt again off the same mark in this lesser contest back on turf.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength27%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Salisbury 02/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 71 · 1m6f44y Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/10/2025 · OR 71 par2/104OR 715 @ Nottingham 23/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 70 · 1m6f Hvy 137 · below its mark23/10/2025 · OR 70 par4 @ Kempton 19/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 67 · 1m2f219y Sta 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/11/2025 · OR 67 par19/114OR 675 @ Kempton 17/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 67 · 1m3f219y Sta 139 · beat its mark17/12/2025 · OR 67 par5 @ Chelmsford City 02/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 65 · 1m6f Std 131 · beat its mark02/01/2026 · OR 65 par2/015OR 656 @ Lingfield 24/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 63 · 1m4f Std 136 · beat its mark24/01/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Lingfield 21/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 67 · 1m5f Std 130 · beat its mark21/02/2026 · OR 67 par21/025OR 675 @ Lingfield 22/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 68 · 1m5f Std 137 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Lingfield 12/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 67 · 1m4f1y Std 135 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 67 par12/095OR 67projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Lingfield54th4th0
2026-08-22Lingfield52nd2nd0
2026-02-21Lingfield52nd2nd0
2026-01-24Lingfield61st2nd−1
2026-01-02Chelmsford City53rd3rd0
2025-12-17Kempton56th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/1017/1221/0212/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength80%

Delivery trend +3.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/10/20254th5/174%70%-0.04
23/10/20258th15/261%0%-0.61
19/11/20253rd11/142%83%+0.41
17/12/20256th5/287%50%-0.37
02/01/20263rd4/179%67%-0.12
24/01/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
21/02/20262nd3/184%91%+0.07
22/08/20262nd6/168%80%+0.12
12/09/20264th13/266%63%-0.03