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9

Moab

6yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 62

Bath · MJ Church Handicap · 1m 5f 11y

#7

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Took advantage of career-low mark when opening account at Southwell a year ago. Returned with a decent third at Salisbury before winning a maiden over hurdles earlier this month.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength52%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Southwell 25/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 104 · 2m4f88y GS 156 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/11/2025 · OR 104 par25/114OR 1044 @ Ascot 19/12/2025 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 107 · 1m7f157y Sft 155 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/12/2025 · OR 107 par4 @ Huntingdon 22/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 105 · 2m4f145y Sft 158 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/01/2026 · OR 105 par22/014OR 1056 @ Southwell 11/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 64 · 1m6f21y Std 140 · beat its mark11/02/2026 · OR 64 par4 @ Exeter 06/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 108 · 2m161y GS 156 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/03/2026 · OR 108 par6/034OR 1084 @ Southwell 24/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 107 · 2m4f88y Gd 158 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/03/2026 · OR 107 parBHA106 @ Punchestown 28/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 24 · OR 106 · 2m3f81y Yie 144 · below its mark28/04/2026 · OR 106 par28/04106OR 1066 @ Salisbury 21/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 63 · 1m6f44y Goo 142 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 63 par4 @ Fontwell 06/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 110 · 2m3f29y Gd 158 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 110 par6/094OR 110projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06Fontwell41st0th+1
2026-08-21Salisbury63rd4th−1
2026-04-28PunchestownBHA1063rd10th−6
2026-03-24Southwell44th3rd+1
2026-03-06Exeter42nd1st+1
2026-02-11Southwell63rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/1111/0228/046/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength73%

Delivery trend +2.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/11/20255th10/382%0%-0.82
19/12/202510th33/10%36%+0.36
22/01/20262nd20/10%93%+0.93
11/02/20263rd6/168%50%-0.18
06/03/20262nd9/153%89%+0.36
24/03/20264th7/282%67%-0.15
28/04/20263rd20/10%91%+0.91
21/08/20263rd2/189%60%-0.29
06/09/20261st1/195%100%+0.05