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Percy Jones

7yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 70

Bath · MJ Church Handicap · 1m 5f 11y

#5

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

All 4 career victories at Wolverhampton, the latest over 1½m last summer. Largely creditable efforts in defeat this year, including when third here (1¾m, good to soft) 16 days ago. Likely to be on the premises again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength44%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wolverhampton 06/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 76 · 1m4f51y Std 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/10/2025 · OR 76 par6/104OR 765 @ Wolverhampton 25/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 75 · 1m4f51y Std 137 · below its mark25/11/2025 · OR 75 par5 @ Newbury 15/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR 74 · 1m4f Gd 134 · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 74 par15/055OR 745 @ Bath 05/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 72 · 1m6f Gd 134 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Chester 27/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 72 · 1m4f63y Goo 139 · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 72 par27/065OR 725 @ Lingfield 13/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 71 · 1m5f1y Std 134 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 71 par5 @ Wolverhampton 18/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 71 · 1m5f219y Std 139 · beat its mark18/08/2026 · OR 71 par18/085OR 715 @ Lingfield 01/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 70 · 1m5f Std 138 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 70 par2 @ Bath 13/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 70 · 1m6f GS 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 70 par13/092OR 70projClass-projected finish: 1st of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Bath23rd-1th+3
2026-09-01Lingfield52nd2nd0
2026-08-18Wolverhampton54th4th0
2026-07-13Lingfield54th4th0
2026-06-27Chester56th6th0
2026-06-05Bath53rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/105/0618/0813/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +10.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/10/20255th11/142%56%+0.13
25/11/20258th5/174%13%-0.61
15/05/20268th22/10%50%+0.50
05/06/20263rd10/147%71%+0.24
27/06/20266th11/142%29%-0.14
13/07/20264th14/126%63%+0.36
18/08/20264th28/10%63%+0.63
01/09/20262nd18/15%75%+0.70
13/09/20263rd14/126%82%+0.56