6
Society Girl
3yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 70
Bath · MJ Church Handicap · 1m 5f 11y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Newmarket | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Newmarket | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Epsom Downs | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Windsor | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Newbury | 3 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2025-11-18 | Newcastle | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength18%
Delivery trend -7.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/10/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 18/11/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 17/04/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 11/05/2026 | 10th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 31/07/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 20/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |