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12

Two Plus Two

6yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 59

Bath · MJ Church Handicap · 1m 5f 11y

#2

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

16%

Place Prob

17%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Stepped forward from this season's return when scoring here (1¾m) in May and has gone close twice since, headed only in the dying strides at Epsom in July. Adopted different tactics to usual when down the field here next time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength61%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Bath 14/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 49 · 1m3f137y Fm 134 · beat its mark14/05/2025 · OR 49 par14/056OR 496 @ Yarmouth 22/05/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 54 · 1m6f17y Goo 134 · beat its mark22/05/2025 · OR 54 par6 @ Bath 04/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 58 · 1m3f137y Gd 133 · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 58 par4/056OR 586 @ Bath 22/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 57 · 1m6f Goo 132 · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 57 par5 @ Nottingham 31/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 60 · 1m6f Goo 125 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 60 par31/055OR 606 @ Nottingham 25/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 60 · 1m6f Goo 135 · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 60 par5 @ Newbury 09/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 60 · 1m5f61y GF 136 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 60 par9/075OR 605 @ Epsom Downs 30/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 60 · 1m4f6y GF 121 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 60 par2 @ Bath 13/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 60 · 1m6f GS 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 60 par13/092OR 60projClass-projected finish: 8th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Bath29th5th+3
2026-07-30Epsom Downs52nd2nd0
2026-07-09Newbury54th4th0
2026-06-25Nottingham62nd3rd−1
2026-05-31Nottingham54th4th0
2026-05-22Bath61st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0522/059/0713/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 6-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength17%

Delivery trend +0.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/05/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
22/05/20257th2/189%25%-0.64
04/05/20264th14/126%63%+0.36
22/05/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
31/05/20264th5/174%50%-0.24
25/06/20262nd6/594%67%-0.27
09/07/20264th17/255%25%-0.30
30/07/20262nd11/271%75%+0.04
13/09/20269th25/10%27%+0.27