Virtue Diligence
3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 65
Bath · MJ Church Handicap · 1m 5f 11y
#12
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Lingfield | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Chepstow | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Salisbury | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Salisbury | 3 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-06-08 | Windsor | 3 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2025-09-24 | Kempton | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/2025 | 9th | 125/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 08/06/2026 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 30/06/2026 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 25/07/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 06/08/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |
| 22/08/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |