5
Yokkell
7yo Mare · 9-9 · OR 63
Bath · MJ Church Handicap · 1m 5f 11y
#13
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Epsom Downs | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Chester | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Bath | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-23 | Ffos Las | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Leicester | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Leicester | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 148% of fieldRange 14-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/12/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 15/12/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/03/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 38% | +0.32 |
| 25/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 85% | +0.14 |
| 09/05/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 23/06/2026 | 4th | 16/5 | 83% | 57% | -0.26 |
| 15/07/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 25/07/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 44% | -0.35 |
| 10/09/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |