Zarco
3yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 67
Bath · MJ Church Handicap · 1m 5f 11y
#9
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Lingfield | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Doncaster | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-06 | Chelmsford City | 2 | 6th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-10-13 | Yarmouth | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-09-22 | Leicester | 3 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |
| 13/10/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 06/11/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 62% | +0.01 |
| 23/07/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 40% | -0.49 |
| 12/09/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 88% | +0.32 |