Afta Party
8yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 59
Bath · AEL Solutions Handicap · 1m
#12
Rank
Odds
100/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 6 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 5.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-29 | Salisbury | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2024-12-26 | Wincanton | 4 | 12th | 10th | +2 |
| 2024-12-17 | Wincanton | 4 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2024-10-29 | Chepstow | 5 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2024-09-20 | Newton Abbot | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2024-08-16 | Newbury | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06/2024 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 01/07/2024 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 18/07/2024 | 9th | 15/2 | 61% | 11% | -0.49 |
| 16/08/2024 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 20/09/2024 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 29/10/2024 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 23% | -0.14 |
| 17/12/2024 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 26/12/2024 | 12th | 22/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 29/08/2025 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |